Feb – March 2012 UP Assembly elections Outcome

On March 6^th, results for 5 state assemblies were made available. Uttar Pradesh has got the maximum attention across India not only it’s the biggest state but also for various reasons such as will Ragul Gandhi’s charm benefit the Congress? Can the BJP revive? Will Mayawati come back? If there is a change of regime then by whom and how?

Snap Shot

Congress won in 28 seats , contested in 355 constituencies. Amethi and Rae Bareli it finishes 2^nd and 3^rd respectively. Rahul’s political experiment in fighting with the farmers and getting arrested and staying in dalit’s house have not yielded any results. The people know that he’s is very guy who stood with people in the streets and help in passing anti people bills in the parliament.

Role of private TV channels in India in building public opinion is unprecedented on every important national or international issue and the 2012 election results is not an exception. Both the NDTV and Times Now projected early trend as favorable to the BJP. At one stage both channels projected close to 80 seats for the BJP and theorizing the trend that the political parties tries to polarize the people on the communal lines which has befitted the BJP. Uma Bharathi has been projected for the BJP’s revival and came to an end by the post lunch and the BJP finished with 47 seats. The very channels in May 2011 while covering Tamilnadu assembly election results did not report about Comrade Balabharathi ’s lead in Dindigul deliberately where the election commission website gives a clear lead for her from the first round.

The BSP's 2007 social engineering tactics didn’t work in 2012. Mean while, the result has shown that the BSP has not lost its core vote bank. It won 80 seats and finished 2^nd in 209 constituencies with total of 1,96,47,549 votes which Is 25.91% of total votes polled. The SP has swept by winning 224 seats and emerged as the single largest party. It’s polled 2,21,07,241 which is 29.15% of total votes polled.

Party	Contested	1st	2nd	3rd	> 3	Total Votes	% Votes
SP	401	224	77	56	44	2,21,07,241	29.15
BSP	403	80	209	73	41	1,96,47,549	25.91
BJP	398	47	55	110	186	1,13,71,027	14.5
Congress	355	28	31	87	209	88,16,091	11.63
RLD	46	9	9	14	14	17,63,354	2.33
Peace Party	208	4	3	8	193	17,85,228	2.35
Quami Ekta Dal	43	2	1	4	36	4,17,560	0.55
Nationalist Congress Party	127	1	0	1	125	2,48,288	0.33
Apna Dal	76	1	2	7	66	6,79,199	0.89
Independents		6

Again RAGHURAJ PRATAP SINGH elected from Kunda with SP’s blessing, SP has not filed a candidate. RAGHURAJ PRATAP SINGH’s anti social activities is expected to be ignored by the SP but what is not expected that he’s given a cabinet birth!

The-first-past-the-post needs serious reconsideration

% votes Number of seats

The-first-past-the-post election system once again demonstrated its shortcomings. The SP which is voted 29.1% got 55% of the total seats ie 224 seats in the assembly and the BSP with 25.9% vote share got 20% seats in the assembly ie 80 seats. The party which is votes less than 30% is going to rule the state!

SP and BSP dominates the elections - Congress and BJP routed out

In 304 constituencies either SP or BSP finishes first out of 403 total constituencies, three-forth taken by these top 2 parties. Either SP or BSP finishes second in 77 and 209 constituencies, sums to 286 constituencies. In 204 constituencies, its either SP finishes first and BSP finishes second or vice versa. Out of these 204, SP won in 161 seats is clear domination by SP and BSP won only in 43.

In 13 constituencies difference in votes is less than 1000 where SP won 9 and BSP won in 4. In 12 seats the margin is between 1000 and 2000, where SP won in 7 and BSP in 5. In 21 seats the margin is between 2000 and 5000, where SP won in 13 and BSP in 8. 38 seats fall between 5000 and 10000 margin, SP won in 27 and BSP in 11.