Saturday, May 17, 2014

16th Lok Shabha election Analysis with respect to propositional representation(PR) - State : Tamilnadu




In 2014 Indian general elections, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, AIADMK, has swept 37 seats out of 39 in Tamilnadu and the National Democratic Alliance, NDA , managed with 2 seats one each to the Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP, and the Pattali Makkal Katchi, PMK. There were 45 political parties were in the fray in Tamilnadu. Tamilnadu has registered 73.68% voter turnout. The AIADMK is voted 44.27% and secured 37 seats ie 94.87% of seats, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, DMK which is voted 23.57% NOT able to secure a single seat.



When the people vote for a party they expect their representatives to reflect their interests in law making and policy making bodies. There is no single representative for a party which is voted 23.57%. Does it NOT show that we need to seriously find an alternative method which ensure fair representation?

                The First-Past-The-Post ,FPTP, system has such serious problem that it failed to represent the parties according to their share in votes. Every voter has to be represented.  India has to seriously consider the propositional representation(PR) to ensure fair representation for the parties which has secured considerable number of votes. The FPTP as a system is introduced by the colonial rulers to elect Indian representatives in the colonial governments. Colonialist need NOT to worry who is representing the Indian people , it’s just a number for them. After independence the Indian National Congress followed the same since it enjoys great advantage in the system.

                For sake argument lets analyze how the parties would have been represented in the 16th Lok Shabha from Tamilnadu under PR.

Please refer the attached spreadsheet.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ggXqhpvXb3Lvlg5PWidXm9Mf38QGaGkBHGwvS2a3VAk/edit?usp=sharing


Tamilnadu has 39 seats , a party or a person who is voted 2.564% should be able to represent one seat. This figure will vary from state to state for, example for Karnataka it’s 100/28 ie 3.571 and for UP it’s 1.25.



Col A
Party’s Name
Col B
Number seats won in 16th LS
Col C
Votes Polled for the party in 16th LS
Col D
% of vote share ( calculated including NoTA )
Col E
% of vote share ( calculated excluding NoTA )
Col F
Party’s vote share – 2.564 (least % that any party should have for a representation )
Col G
% of votes adjusted by considering only eligible parties
Col F
Seats as PR
 




Under PR, ADMK would have got 19 seats, DMK – 10 and PMK, BJP , Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam and Indian National Congress would have secured 2 seats each. Importantly, the people who have voted for the parties would have been satisfied that they are represented. Indian people should think seriously for such alternative system in order to be represented.
 
Overall Results :


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